為什麼Spotify需要俄羅斯

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  • 作者: 音樂地圖
    • 202010/1405:19

    ◎Spotify進入俄羅斯市場,儘管它並沒有像簽下知名播客(Josh Rogan)交易那樣推動公司股價上漲,但實際上它將變得更為重要。
    ◎Spotify有一個類似於Apple的問題,但是選擇了一個非Apple解決方案。
    2019年,全球串流媒體收入增長了22%,在受2020年影響的COVID-19中,增長將顯著放緩。然而,由於西方市場成熟,增長率放緩,訂戶數量的增長快於收入,從而壓低了ARPU。Spotify與Apple面臨同樣的挑戰。
    Apple是智慧手機的市場領導者,但並不擁有大部分市場,整個智能手機市場正在放緩,這意味著iPhone的銷售已經放緩。Apple本可以決定進入低端市場,為較富裕的消費者和新興市場製造更便宜的設備。但它決定不這樣做,而是開始以更高的價格將其高端設備推向更高的市場。Spotify則採取相反的方法。它沒有提高高價值市場的價格,而是優先考慮較低ARPU新興市場。
    Spotify之所以這樣做,是因為:a)它沒有像Apple這樣的多元化產品,因此不太可能冒銷售放緩的風險,並且:b)其產品與其他串流媒體服務的區別不大,無法防止價格上漲帶來的用戶流失。
    ◎押寶新興市場
    Spotify並未專注於提高現有訂戶的收入增長,而是將骰子擲向訂戶增長。這正是Spotify選擇玩的遊戲,而俄羅斯進來了。
    新興市場是訂戶增長的基礎:在2019年至2027年之間,亞太地區,拉丁美洲和世界其他地區的總和將推動全球音樂訂戶增長71%。Spotify已致力於這一戰略,並已見成效。在2020年第一季收入中,拉丁美洲和世界其他地區是Spotify當季增長的主要動力,佔所有新用戶的73%;一年前的比例僅為30%。
    但是新興市場需要花費很多時間進行轉換,用戶需要通過廣告支持和擴展試用來熟悉服務,然後才能緩慢轉換為付費服務,儘管由於消費能力較低,因此價格始終低於開發市場。因此,Spotify需要繼續擴大用戶獲取渠道,這意味著要在人口眾多的新市場(例如俄羅斯)中啟動。
    ◎俄羅斯在全球格局的貢獻 對Spotify至關重要
    2019年對俄羅斯的串流媒體來說是重要的一年,收入增長79%,零售額達到2.49億美元,使其成為一個相當大的市場,但還不是一個很大的市場。相比之下,巴西的串流媒體收入是這個數字的兩倍多。截至2020年第一季,俄羅斯當地Vkontakte和Yandex的用戶總數達到740萬,合併市佔達到80%,因此Spotify進入了一個本土企業成熟的市場。
    ◎Spotify上一次採用這種方法是在印度,但尚未取得成果。因此,俄羅斯不太可能對Spotify取得巨大成功,但完全有理由希望俄羅斯在未來三年內在該地區吸引300萬用戶,這反過來將有助於維持Spotify的全球用戶增長。這不是在俄羅斯取勝,而是在全球取勝。換句話說,Spotify對俄羅斯的需求,比俄羅斯對Spotify的需求更大。

    詳細內文:

    Last week’s Spotify launch in Russia may not seem like a big deal, until Mark Mullighan of MIDiA pulls back the curtain and digs into the numbers.
    By Mark Mulligan of MIDiA and the Music Industry blog
    Spotify’s delayed Russia launch finally happened this week. While it did not drive a stock price growth like the Josh Rogan deal did (the stock closed just 1 cent higher than the previous day’s close) it will actually prove much more important in the medium term.
    Podcasts are Spotify’s long-term bet, the moon shot that keeps investors excited and that points to a future where Spotify is better able to plot its own destiny without being constrained by record labels. But that future destination does not mean anything if Spotify is unable to maintain strong growth in its core business in the interim. Which is where Russia comes in.
    Spotify has an Apple-like problem but chose a very non-Apple solution.
    Global streaming revenue growth was 22% in 2019 and growth will slow significantly in the COVID-19 impacted 2020. Growth rates however were already slowing due to the maturation of developed western markets, while subscriber numbers were growing faster than revenues, pushing down ARPU. Spotify has the same challenge as Apple.
    Apple is the market leader in smartphones but does not own the majority of the market and the overall smartphone market is slowing, which means that iPhone sales have slowed. Apple could have decided to go ‘down market’ and created cheaper devices for less affluent consumers and emerging markets. It decided not to, and instead to start pushing its top-end devices even higher up the market with higher price points. Spotify has taken the opposite approach. Rather than increase prices in high-value markets, it is prioritising lower ARPU emerging markets. Spotify has done so because a) it does not have a diversified product like Apple so is less able to risk slowing sales, and b) its product is not sufficiently differentiated from other streaming services to prevent churn if prices went up.
    Betting big on emerging markets
    Instead of focusing on maximising revenue growth among existing subscribers, Spotify is rolling the dice on subscriber growth. It keeps telling investors to measure it on growth and market share, and that is exactly the game Spotify has chosen to play. Which is where Russia comes in.
    Emerging markets are where the subscriber growth lies: Asia Pacific, Latin America and Rest of World combined will drive 71% of global music subscriber growth between 2019 and 2027. Spotify is already committed to this strategy and is already seeing results. In its Q1 2020 earnings, Latin America and Rest of World were the workhorses of Spotify’s growth during the quarter, accounting for 73% of all new subscribers; one year previously the share was just 30%.
    But emerging markets take time to convert, users need to get familiar with the service via ad supported and extended trials before slowly converting to paid, though always at lower rates than in developed markets due to lower spending power. So, Spotify needs to keep expanding the user acquisition funnel which means launching in populous new markets such as Russia.
    Russia’s contribution to the global picture is what matters for Spotify
    The question many are asking is, has Spotify left it too late for Russia? There is no doubt that 2019 was a big year for streaming in Russia, with revenues growing at 79% to reach $249 million in retail terms, which makes it a sizeable, but not (yet) a large market. By way of comparison, Brazil’s streaming revenues are comfortably more than double that. As of Q1 2020 there were 7.4 million subscribers with Vkontakte and Yandex commanding a combined market share of 80%, so Spotify is entering an established market with well-established indigenous players.
    This is not Spotify’s modus operandi and the last time it took this approach was India, which is yet to deliver results. So Russia is unlikely to be a runaway success for Spotify, but it is entirely reasonable for it to expect to pick up three million subscribers there over the next three years, which in turn will help sustain Spotify’s global subscriber growth. This is not about winning in Russia but instead winning globally. Or put another way, Spotify needs Russia more than Russia needs Spotify.

     

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