Live Nation, Disney蒸發掉的百億美元去哪了

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  • Live Nation, Disney蒸發掉的百億美元去哪了

      202012/2508:54

    ◎由於大流行,Live Nation和Disney的收入在2020年上半年總計下降了100億美元。MIDiA分析師(Mark Mulligan)指出,最大的問題是,這筆支出是否仍處於休眠狀態?還是已經轉移到其他地方?如果是的話,是否能收回?
    ◎從經濟和大流行的角度來看,與上半年相比,我們處於一個相對安靜的時期,但一個部門的損失通常是另一部門的收益。COVID-19看到了贏家和輸家,對於在上半年失去收入的娛樂公司,問題是他們是否會重新獲得收入,是否會因鎖定長期收縮。
    ◎Live Nation和Disney(由於其主題公園)在COVID-19期間重創。Live Nation的收入從2019年第二季的32億美元下降到2020年第二季的7400萬美元,下降了98%。由於業務多元化,Disney的跌幅相對而言相對較小(-38%),但實際損失則是Live Nation的兩倍以上。Disney和Live Nation總計損失近100億美元的收入,同於2020年第二季有100億美元消費娛樂支出未花費。最大的問題是,這筆支出是否仍處於休眠狀態,等待再次開放後使用,或已移至其他地方-如果是休眠,則可以贏回。
    ◎以下是消費者轉移支出的一些地方,可能影響娛樂業務的恢復:
    房屋裝修:(Home Depot)的2020年第二季收入增長了72億美元,幾乎是Disney和Live Nation收入損失的四分之三。娛樂公司面臨的風險是,這些新房裝修的一部分可能會遇到DIY錯誤,只剩下少許資金將轉進娛樂業。
    家庭購物:與2019年相比,Amazon季收入增長42%,增長了383億美元。另外,Amazon的增長對娛樂公司產生了額外的影響。它的訂閱量增長了29%,主要指的是Amazon Prime,它當然捆綁了音樂和視頻,並將直接與Spotify和Netflix競爭。例如,AMC電影院的季收入出現災難性下降99%,這意味著季虧損15億美元,而Netflix同期則增長13億美元。
    ◎數位廣告也發生類似的變化。實力雄厚的Alphabet的收入下降了2%,而Amazon的廣告收入增長了40%。
    ◎封鎖期間消費轉換例子不勝枚舉。MIDiA目前正在進行一項重大的新研究,以探索這些轉變以及對娛樂業的長期影響。但關鍵要點是,在封鎖期間丟失去娛樂性支出的公司,不應假定這些支出仍在消費者的銀行帳戶中等待,一旦重啟後就可立即支出,因為其中一些可能永久消失,分配給封鎖期間養成的新習慣。娛樂公司並非不能恢復到以前的高峰,但在全球經濟衰退期間,這可能不是簡單的任務。

    詳細全文:

    Live Nation and Disney revenue collectively fell $10 billion in the first half of 2020 thanks to the pandemic.
    “The big question is whether that spend remains dormant, waiting to be tapped when doors open again, or has it gone elsewhere – and if so, can it be won back.,” writes MIDiA analyst Mark Mulligan.
    By Mark Mulligan of MIDiA from the Music Industry blog
    In both economic and pandemic terms, we are in a relatively quiet period compared to the first half of the year. COVID-19 is at much lower levels in most countries and there are multiple sectors, such as housing and auto, that are reporting booms. These positive indicators will likely be both a pre-recession bounce and the lull before COVID-19’s second peak. However, there is a crucial subtext here, which is that one sector’s loss is often another’s gain. COVID-19 saw winners and losers, as any post-recession recovery is defined by ‘scarring’ where some companies and formats build where others have failed. For entertainment companies that lost revenue during the first half of the year, the question is whether they will regain that revenue or whether their lockdown legacy will be a long-term contraction.
    Live Nation & Disney
    Live Nation and Disney (because of its theme parks) were two of COVID-19’s biggest and highest-profile entertainment company casualties. Live Nation’s revenues fell from $3.2 billion in Q2 2019 to $74 million in Q2 2020, a 98% decline. Disney’s fall was less in relative terms (-38%) due to having a diversified business but more than double Live Nation’s loss in actual terms. Between them, Disney and Live Nation lost nearly $10 billion of revenue which can be bluntly equated with $10 billion of consumer entertainment spend that went unspent in Q2 2020. The big question is whether that spend remains dormant, waiting to be tapped when doors open again, or has it gone elsewhere – and if so, can it be won back.
    The lockdown winners were companies that could trade on consumers being cooped at home: games, video, home shopping, video messaging etc. Some of these were stop-gaps that consumers turned to in order to fill the void; others represent long-term behaviour shifts. Here are some of the places consumers shifted their spend, and how it might impact recovery for entertainment businesses:
    Home improvements: One of the areas to see strong lockdown growth was home improvements – people stuck at home staring at the DIY jobs they had always meant to get around to doing and now had both the time and the money to do them. Home Depot saw its Q2 2020 revenues increase by $7.2 billion, nearly three quarters of that lost Disney and Live Nation revenue. Obviously, these are not like-for-like shifts as different geographies are involved, but the direction of travel is clear. The beauty of the home improvements business model is that there is always another room to do, another project to start. The risk for entertainment companies is that a portion of these new home improvers may have got the DIY bug and will have less spend to shift back to entertainment.
    Home shopping: Amazon was a huge lockdown winner, growing quarterly revenues by 42% compared to 2019, representing an increase of $38.3 billion. Those revenues include, among other things, its cloud business, which rode the wave of many of lockdown’s other success stories. Additionally, the shift to home shopping has been pronounced. Amazon’s growth has extra implications for entertainment companies. Its subscriptions were up 29% which largely refer to Amazon Prime, which of course comes with music and video bundled in and will in turn compete directly with pure-play propositions like Spotify and Netflix. This will take on added significance during the recession: when cost-conscious consumers are forced to cut back on spending, an all-in-one entertainment bundle that includes home shipping looks a lot more cost effective than a handful of standalone subscriptions. Amazon Prime is not recession proof, but it is certainly recession resilient.
    Changing of the guard: Some of most interesting shifts are actually within entertainment. For example, AMC cinemas saw quarterly revenues fall by a catastrophic 99%, representing a quarterly loss of $1.5 billion while over the same period Netflix gained $1.3 billion. Again, the geographies are not directly comparable but the direction of travel is clear: old video being replaced by new video. A similar changing of the guard is happening in digital advertising. Alphabet, the powerhouse, saw revenues fall by 2% while Amazon saw its ad revenues grow by 40%. Turns out that advertisers will pay a premium to reach customers that are one click away from a purchase. Who’d have thought it…
    The list of examples of lockdown shifts goes on and on. In fact, so much so that MIDiA is currently working on a major new piece of research exploring these shifts and what the long-term implications are for entertainment businesses. We’re calling it ‘Post-Pandemic Programming’. There will be a series of in-depth reports for clients and also a webinar and podcast mini-series. So, watch this space!
    But returning to the above findings, the key takeaway is that companies that lost entertainment spend during lockdown should not assume that this spending is waiting in consumer’s bank accounts, ready to be spent as soon doors open again. Pent-up demand will ensure much of it will but some of it is probably gone for good, allocated to new habits developed during lockdown but that will persist long after. This is not to say that those companies cannot return to previous heights, but to do so they will need to unlock new spending from new customers. Which may not be the easiest of tasks during a global recession.

     

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